By Stephen Beech

One in three children will be overweight worldwide with one in six clinically obese by 2050, warns new research.

Obesity rates are set to skyrocket, say scientists, with “significant” increases predicted within the next five years.

But they stress urgent action now could “turn the tide” of the public health crisis.

The new study, published in The Lancet, predicts that a third of children and teenagers around the world will be overweight or obese within the next 25 years.

The forecast equates to 356 million children aged five– to 14-years-old and 390 million aged 15– to 24-years-old with one in six facing obesity.

The global obesity rate for those between five- and 24-years-old tripled from 1990 to 2021, rising by 244% to 174 million.

The research team, led by scientists at Murdoch Children’s Research Institute (MCRI) in Australia, says that current approaches to curbing increases in obesity have “failed” a generation of young people.

As of 2021, 493 million children and adolescents were overweight or obese.

Dr. Jessica Kerr, of MCRI, says that if immediate five-year action plans are not developed, the future is “bleak” for today’s youngsters as obesity rarely resolves after adolescence.

She said: “Children and adolescents remain a vulnerable population within the obesity epidemic.

“This giant burden will not only cost the health system and the economy billions, but complications associated with a high Body Mass Index (BMI), including diabetes, cancer, heart problems, breathing issues, fertility problems and mental health challenges, will negatively impact our children and adolescents now and into the future, even holding the potential to impact our grandchildren’s risk of obesity and quality of life for decades to come.

“Despite these findings indicating monumental societal failures and a lack of coordinated global action across the entire developmental window to reduce obesity, our results provide optimism that this trajectory can be avoided if action comes before 2030.”

The analysis – published on World Obesity Day – used the 2021 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study to estimate the latest overweight and obesity levels and forecasts in 204 countries and territories.

The United Arab Emirates, Cook Islands, Nauru and Tonga are forecast to have the highest prevalence while China, Egypt, India and the United States will have the greatest number of children and adolescents with obesity by 2050.

Australia has seen some of the fastest increases in obesity among children and teenagers in the world.

Australian girls are already more likely to be obese than overweight. Overall, by 2050 for those aged five- to 24 years old, 2.2 million are forecast to be obese and 1.6 million overweight.

Worldwide, more boys aged five to 14 will be classified as obese than overweight by 2050, according to the study.

Dr. Kerr said: “Without urgent policy reform, the transition to obesity will be particularly rapid in North Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and in the Caribbean, where the rise is concurrent with high population numbers and limited resources.

“Many regions have historically had to focus on preventing undernutrition and stunting in children.

“To prevent a public health emergency from this newer threat, an immediate imperative should be creating national surveillance surveys of obesity in children and adolescents in every country.”

Dr. Kerr says older girls and young women, aged 15 to 24, are a “priority” group for intervention.

She said: “Adolescent girls who are obese are a main focus if we are to avoid intergenerational transmission of obesity, chronic conditions and the dire financial and societal costs across future generations.

“With this age group increasingly being out of school and cared for by adult services, we need to focus interventions at the community and commercial level.”

MCRI Professor Susan Sawyer says governments need to invest in “multi-component strategies” that reduce obesity drivers, across food and drink, activity, lifestyle and the built environment.

She said: “While people and families can work to balance their physical activity, diet and sleep, everything in our environments works to counteract these efforts.

“Given this huge global shift in children’s and adolescents’ weight, we can no longer keep blaming people for their choices.

“We require governments to step up by addressing regulatory interventions including taxing sugar-sweetened beverages, banning junk food advertising aimed at children and young people and funding healthy meals in primary and secondary schools.”

Sawyer added: “We also need to consider the benefits of wider policies such as overhauling urban planning to encourage active lifestyles.”